At every milestone in Iraq, the anti-war people have been predicting imminent disaster. And each time, Iraq has muddled through pretty well.

I can come up with as many hypotheticals as you can for a scenario where Saddam was left in power in perpetuity.

There's another election in December, and Iraq is by no means out of the woods yet. The terrorists aren't going to go down easy, and there are still real political gulfs to be crossed. But you'd think after the Shiites had been killed by terrorists in the numbers they have been over the past couple of years, that if there was going to be a civil war, it would be half over by now.