http://www.globalsecurity.org/space/world/china/piloted-lunar.htm

Charlie's speculations.

The facts are that there have been Chinese illustrations showing a Chang'e 3 sample return caspsule based on the Shenzhou.

Whether the Chang'e 3 will be launched by the use of two CZ2 variants (one for payload, one for TLI), or by one CZ5 is not known. A delivery time of 2010 or shortly therafter for the launch of the large station (not the experimental laboratory, which will probably be launched by a CZ2 variant) looks possible.

The time frame for a second unmanned full systems test flight might be around 2013. Who knows, the old SZ test dummy might be re-called to active duty and put in the rotation again on flight status.

China has great need for better telecommunication, weather, reconnaisance, and earth resources satellites, and a better launch vehicle to launch them with. The manned program will probably remain at a low funding level. It's simply not that high a priority.

Russia has its own manned lunar architecture in place, using its next generation of launch vehicles. RCS is hypergolic (at least right now) and it features the use of a Kilpr variant, medium launchers, a TLI stage, and a fueling station in lunar orbit. But their economy is still recovering, and their manned space program is strapped for cash. Their communication satellite industry is being re-organized to provide better satellites, and this has the highest priority.

Russia wants better ties with Japan and Europe, and does not want to see the world divided into east (Russia and China) and west blocks. Russia is simply sick and tired of playing that game, and having that role placed on it by reactionaries in the west.

China has a policy of self reliance, and while relations with Europe are good, China is in negotiations with Japan over sea resources claims. As far as relations with both Japan and the US go, they have always been dependent to a large degree on the actions of the leaders on Taiwan, and everyone has reacted to these actions. Taiwan is trying ot make its own cliams to sea resources. It is worrisome, and my hope is that everyone will expend every effort to find peaceful solutions to these problems. Commercial relations between Taiwan and the mainland have been and remain very important to everyone's happiness.

For its manned lunar program, the current NASA Adminstration has chosen lox-alcohol for RCS and ammonia-methane for the mains, largely to test their role in manned Mars flight. While those are very good fuels, both for use on the Moon as well as Mars, US public support for go it alone manned Mars flight is weak and falling, and the US economy is facing oil limits.

Most of this will play out over the next year.

Of course, at any moment an impactor could hit and take out one or more nations. They have in the past, with astonishing frequency, Tunguska class at about 1 per 100 years.

I have to go work now.