That $5 Billion is for the parallel operation of the shuttle and ISS while the new Thiokol lanuchers are being developed.

Saturn 5 was shut down while the shuttle was being developed.

Since there is not enough money for shuttle operations and ISS while the new Thiokol launchers are being developed, shuttle and ISS will be shut down. This has to be done now, as it is certain no future administration will finance this development. As far as this administration's wishes, a lot depends on the outcome of the mid term elections, and it appears their outcome will depend for the most part on the economy. Depending upon that, the new Thiokol launchers could be killed well before 2008. We'll all get to watch.

While Griffin talks about deferring non-essential research, the HLV is not needed for the Moon.
The Moon can be done with the medium lift launchers used for the best comsats, and China will demonstrate this in the next decade. While the CEV could be developed, along with the trans lunar insertion stage (keeping the SSME in production) without breaking the budget, and without impinging on shuttle and ISS operations, I don't think that's going to happen.

I know I am alone here in this view, but I think what may happen is that the shutttle and ISS may be shut down, and then the Thiokol production lines may be shut down: the money "saved" won't be used for manned Mars flight. If not immediately, it will happen in at any future time of economic difficulty. There is simply not enough public support to finance go it alone manned Mars flight.

As there is a new generation of far more efficient re-usable engines being developed now, and SpaceX is developing a medium launcher entirely with private funds, why is Griffin using government money to develop new launchers from Thiokol?

We have two launcher production lines, one Boeing, one LockMart, and one new private sector effort, and now we're financing the conversion of the shuttle. That will be four launcher production lines. The only technical constraint, the one that Thiokol keeps pushing, is the flame impingement, but we already have two large flame pits which the other launch companies aren't being helped to use - no wonder why.

I think China may wait to see the new more efficient re-usable engines and adopt them for the CZ 5, along with fly-back or parachute recoverable common diameter stages. Along with economies of scale, their launch costs could be well below anyone in the world, including Ariane 5, Angara, and anything from Boeing-LockMart. The SpaceX Falcon 9 may still be competitive.
By then China will be able to provide their own world class comsats as well.

I wonder if Griffin has put any of this into one of his spreadsheets.

CZ 5 develpoment wil begin after the flight of SZ7, and finish around 6 1/2 years later, say 2013, 2014-2015 with slip. Chang E 3 will then be flown, and the full earth orbit space station with fuel transfer capabilities. The small lunar surface telescope may be flown earlier. The lunar orbit station should come bout 2022-2023, with manned work on the Moon by 2024, including the impactor warning telescopes and most likely the high power laser illumination system and/or radar, all dates approximate.

Just to opint out the obvious, ss a response to this, no one is going to pay for manned Mars flight. Sorry, but there will be no race.

We need a congressional hearing to identify who in NASA told Yeomans not to talk about impact mitigation, and we need to fire them now.