"The moves necessary to make "People Power" work have now been turned into techniques that have been set down on check lists and presented in seminars. There's a drill that can make this happen if two conditions apply. First, most of the population must want democracy. Second, the security forces must be willing to stand down in the face of mass demonstrations. The first condition applies in Iran, the second doesn't. While the Islamic conservatives in Iran have the support of, at most, a third of the population, they do have over a hundred thousand armed men who are willing to kill to keep their religious leaders in power. "
http://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htiw/articles/20060315.aspx
[linked from instapundit]

I disagree. But I agree that at the moment people power in Iran probably wouldn't work. I don't think the nuclear stand off at the moment helpful. Nor is the lack of stablity in Iraq. Both these factors probably make most people fear instablity more than they want political freedoms. The terrorist attacks in Iraq and elsewhere in region are probably the greatest dampering affect.

More importantly in order for people power to be where near useful in terms of regime change [as oppose to putting pressure on regime to change some minor policy] you need the people to very organized. Without organization even if people power were to be successful in creating major changes or regime change the resulting confusion could easily be worse than existing regime [especially if you are getting a similar level suicide/terrorist attacks as Iraq which could easily polarize factions into a civil war]. So what is needed is organizing and the key to organizing is arriving at common consenus that people believe are important/relevent to their lives. This organizing should not be loud but rather low key or covert if needed.
An example of something that could have broad consenus and something relevant to Iranians is the idea the Iran should not be involved in anyway in a war with Iraq- so things like supplying weapons to terrorists in Iraq is something to be against. Also promoting friendship with Iraq and getting further past any of the hostilities lingering from Iraq/Iran war and remembering historically good relations, while working towards such relationship that will bring further prosperity to both countries.