"Postulate #4: "Don't underestimate the potential effects of heterogeneity "
This is good point to keep in mind, it might also be determining factor in determining whether capital is risked: if there a uniform quality, such as everywhere there is permanent shadow there is say 4-5% water concentration evenly mixed throughout the lunar regolith, the interested parties may prefer to wait for others to take the highest risk by going first [resulting no one being in any hurry]. Whereas if there are limited areas which small qualities but high concentration of water 80-90%, there would more incentive to get there as quickly as possible and "cherry pick" these areas- therefore there could be more risk waiting than going first.
Of there other factors than than just water concentration. E.g. Local terrian could determine chosen power source [solar or nuclear- and either one has different advantages], the communication to earth infrastructure, what potential other projects could located around your area of operations [e.g. near lava tubes which might be useful for living/work areas, or near an area which other things could mined PGM or say Iron].