No one can predict the future, but I don't think the Iraq 2 scenario will develop if and when Communism leaves Cuba.

First, Cubans are not religious fanatics. Even before Castro, Both the local Roman Catholicism and the nativist religions that came with the slaves were very live-and-let-live in attitude. In fact, some people practiced both, and most neither. There were also large and well-integrated Jewish and Chinese communities. Most Cubans, although not necessarily agnostic, were not dominated and obsessed by religion as they are in some Latin American countries.

Second, Cubans, although racially diverse, are not tribally or ethnically or linguistically divided. The class divisions in pre-Castro Cuba were mostly economic. The potential source of conflict in the future will arise between those who benefited from the regime and those who didn't.

Third, Cubans, although ever skeptical and wary of American interests and influence, never developed anti-Americanism. The typical stereotype of a Yankee in Cuba was a tall, bumbling, cold, and clumsy, but generally decent fellow. Even the Castro regime always made it a point to distinguish between the American people and their government.

The major source of possible trouble in a post-Castro Cuba will be those who stand to lose everything (the Party) and those who lost everything and will now want to go back and take over (the exiles). Their is a great potential for trouble here, but I can't visualize it as ending in civil war or revolution. What I forsee is a time similar to post Civil-War Reconstruction in the American South. And I see a lot of crime, both domestic and imported.