re: COTS winners
The DARPA contract is still going, so it's not a disaster, but the NASA one would have been great.
I must admit that although I'm disappointed, I'm very pleased after many earlier years of working in the private space field to see that the industry seems to have reached a point where its success is almost inevitable.
I predict with some confidence that companies like SpaceX and many others will actually overtake NASA's current manned space capabilities within ten years. To its credit, NASA seems now to see a role for itself as customer, not developer, and will probably come out of this with lower operating costs and more cash for the pure research that has advanced the industry as a whole.
