Hi -

The problem now is the linking mechanism.

(6) SOLAR ACTIVITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE

Will Alexander <alexwjr@iafrica.com>

Dear Benny

As a subscriber to CCNet, like many of your readers I have watched
recent developments with increasing alarm. What I completely fail to
understand is the fundamental lack of knowledge of the most basic issue
of climate change science - the influence of solar activity on global
climate.

Why do climate change scientists continue to ignore the wealth of
literature stretching back for more than 100 years, relating to the
multiyear anomalies in the hydrometeorological data and their linkage
with solar activity?

The following is a short memorandum on the subject. There are no
abstract theories or hypotheses so it should not be too difficult for
others to check its validity.

CLIMATE PREDICTION MODEL

The synchronous linkage between sunspot activity, floods, droughts and
surface temperature has been recorded and published for more than 100
years in South Africa and elsewhere.

My detailed analyses of a very large and comprehensive
hydrometeorological database showed a statistically significant (95%)
21-year periodicity in the South African data during the past century.

I found no statistically significant 11-year periodicity. I also found
that the characteristics of the hydrometeorological data differed during
the alternating 11 and 10-year periods that made up the 21-year
periodicity.

Other South African scientists have noted and published similar
anomalies in the data.

I used the regular, periodic changes to develop a successful climate
prediction model published in 1995 and updated in 2005.
Although not part of the model, I demonstrated an unambiguous
synchronous linkage with sunspot activity. This information was also
published.

For the past four years F Bailey from the UK and I have carried out
independent studies. I studied the hydrometeorological data and he
studied solar activity. We made contact earlier this year and found a
clear and unambiguous causal linkage between solar activity and the
hydrometeorological responses.

CAUSAL LINKAGE

The solar system consists of the sun and the orbiting bodies, of which
the four major planets Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus and Neptune are the most
important.

The solar system has a centre of mass, (SSCM). All bodies in the solar
system, including the sun, orbit around the SSCM.
The SSCM has a constant velocity through galactic space.

At times the four major planets are grouped together in their orbits and
at other times they are scattered around the SSCM.
When they are grouped together, their combined effect causes the sun to
follow a weighted reciprocal path around the SSCM. The distance between
the sun and the SSCM therefore varies. This creates a wobble in the
sun's trajectory through space.

Our recent analyses demonstrate the following.

The alternating grouping and dispersion of the four major planets occurs
at regular intervals of about 21 years. This is synchronous with the
21-year periodicity in the hydrometeorological data.

During this period the solar system performs approximately one and three
quarter rotations through galactic space.
Starting with the sun's position trailing that of the SSCM, the sun
accelerates to take up a balancing position ahead of the SSCM. This
takes place during the first rotation of the solar system. The duration
is typically 11 years.

The sun continues rotating about the SSCM but its galactic velocity
decelerates as it returns to the trailing position. The duration of this
rotation is typically about 10 years. The 21-year solar cycle is then
repeated.

Both the acceleration and deceleration processes result in an increase
in sunspot numbers while the intervening sunspot minima occur when the
sun is in the trailing and leading positions. The mechanism that
produces the sunspots is unknown but several theories exist. This
synchronous occurrence of sunspot activity with the sun's acceleration
and deceleration as the solar system moves through galactic space is
beyond doubt.

CHANGES IN THE RECEIPT OF SOLAR ENERGY

A consequence of the wobble in the sun's trajectory through galactic
space is the ever-changing chord distance between the sun and earth.

This in turn results in corresponding changes in the rate of solar
energy received on earth.
These changes are amenable to mathematical calculation.
Our analyses show that the changes in the receipt of solar energy are
appreciably greater than those generally quoted in the climate change
literature.

VISUALISATION

Te following example should help with the visualisation of the
situation. Consider a ceiling fan mounted on the back of an open truck
and tilted at a 45 degree upward angle facing the front of the vehicle.
A marble is attached to the tip of one of the blades.

The truck moves at a constant speed and the fan rotates at a constant
speed. However, the road speed of the marble changes. At the 12 o'clock
and 6 o'clock positions of the marble its road speed is the same as the
truck speed. At the 3 o'clock position the marble is moving forward and
its road speed is accelerating. Conversely, at the 9 o'clock position
the marble is moving backwards and its road speed is decelerating.

The same happens as the sun orbits around the SSCM. It is the galactic
velocity that accelerates and decelerates. This results in increases in
sunspot activity. The sunspot minima occur when the sun's galactic
velocity equals that of the SSCM.
This movement is amenable to mathematical calculation. Confirmation is
the synchronous behaviour of multiyear changes in rainfall, river flow
and flood peak maxima.

OUTSTANDING ISSUES

The two main outstanding issues are the physical mechanism that causes
sunspot production resulting from the changes in the sun's galactic
velocity, and the mechanism that links these changes with global
climate. These do not negate the underlying processes.

Our findings open a whole new field of research related to present and
past climatic processes.

REPRODUCIBILITY

Our findings are based on readily available data published by the
responsible national authorities. Our calculations are reproducible by
anybody with sufficient knowledge in these fields.

Despite a diligent search I was unable to detect any sustained changes
in the hydrometeorological data that could be attributed to climate
change, against the background of the statistically significant changes
associated with solar activity.

Neither of us has received any financial or other support from any
source. Our sole motivations were the advancement of science.

WJR Alexander
Professor Emeritus, Department of Civil and Biosystems Engineering
University of Pretoria, South Africa
alexwjr@iafrica.com