(Sorry, you know what happens when you give me a straight line.)

This close to the election it's best to not take any poll too seriously. It's not just the squirreliness of the electorate under pressure from all sides, it's also the ferocious spin around the polls. I was channel-surfing the cable news ghetto last night, and caught Fox's rather entertaining attempt at spin. They had this alpha RightWing blogger, Lucianna-something, whose self-aggrandizing thesis was that (RightWing)* bloggers have replaced the mainstream media as the authorities on public opinion, and the (RightWing) bloggers all agree that Republicans will actually retain Congress, despite the unanimity of the polls saying otherwise. It was clearly an attempt to "shore up the base" and get them to go to the polls, but in a microcosm it's typical of the kind of spin going on.

This late in the game it doesn't really seem to matter much what the polls say or whether they're accurate. Those mundane considerations are instantly buried as the political machines go into spin cycle. I hate to say it, but the spin will be more important than the facts. It always happens this close to an election: It's too late now to research and debunk specious claims, and they tend to stand unchallenged.

*--In a classic example of framing, it was just "bloggers", as if all bloggers regardless of political persuasion held that position.