Watch for republicans trying to get some democrats, new and old, to jump-ship and declare independent-but-caucuses-with-republicans. It would be a reasonable strategy to pusue at this point, as things look essentially settled in virginia.
For me, the central message of this election is that there is a serious discontent in the US citizenry over:
• Corruption (including moral corruption)
• Government being seen as unresponsive to the needs of the american people (esp w/immigration, middle class issues, the local impact of globalism, disproportionate impact of economic gains, etc)
• Pork
• Jingoism and groupthink, as demonstrated by the 'lockstep' of the former congress with the executive on issues that were unpopular with the american people (Immigration and Iraq)
• The incomptence or dishonesty manifest in the laying of justification for the Iraq war
• Last but not least: the progress of the Iraq war
• The 'BigBadBully' effect: republicans have spent the last 6 years savaging anyone and everyone who disagreed with a small set of key concepts. Concepts which have now been provien to be unproductive, as witnessed in Iraq
One Jingo put forward by the right is that the democrats did not win this election, but the republicans lost. This is one of the few Jingos put forward by the right that has some serious truth in it.
The democratic party needs to attend to this. This election was not an endorsement of the more liberal positions of the last 30 years, instead this is an endorsement of essentially populist standpoints that are closer to the classic FDR-style democratic party: Job Security, Thwarted propserity, Average Folks feeling exiled from the economic engines of success, and a desire to see a government that works FOR the people instead of one that USES the people.
While I sure as hell wouldn't mind it if the democrats started kicking over rocks and shining lights on what I suspect was a massively corrupt government- They need to resist this temptation. They need to attend to the lessons of this election and get on board with the needs of the american people- not the needs of the bosses of their party. Oversight in Iraq is extremely important, and dealing with at least some of the corrupt contractors is vital- but if they look like witch-hunters out to burn the other party out of existance, they will be treated to a big pot of screw-you in the next election.
They need to re-think some of their positions on immigration and globalism. Obviously we can't retreat into protectionism, but we should tear a few pages out of the playbooks of India and China- where industry and government cooperated to serve the needs of their domestic economy (obviously, we need to forgo the nepotism and corruption manifest in the deeds of China and India, though).
I think also that both parties need to get down with the fact that it appears to me that this election demonstrates that the American people are a bit tired of polarizing 'moralist' agendas. Abortion, Gay Marriage, Gun Ownership, Church/State issues, and this is amazing to me, took a back seat in this election to SUBSTANTIVE isues!!!. The Single-Issue Values Voter is not even a viable piece on the political chess board, much less one of the most important pieces! I think this bodes very well for america. Witness the the relative lack of a statistical spread between the evangelicals voting for the right or left. In many races it was a dead heat!
So anyway, if the democratic party wants to capitalize on this election and carry forward a new decade of democratic values, they need to refactor their handbook a bit. They need to (and I almost hate to say this) listen to the 'Lou Dobbs' watchers. They need to get on board with the American People, and not assme that the American People got on board with them.
Another thought that I won't expand on here, but just throw out: Just as the so-called 'blogosphere' shaped previous elections, I think YouTube shaped this election.
speculation(s) and woolgathering
