Off Topic — HabitableZone

Off Topic » in reply to You're braver than I am

That's A Good Strategy

It's what most financial planners recommend and for good reason. You can loose your shirt timing the Market wrong and go in debt if you do it with options. I'm too conservative for options. I figure doubling your money every 4 to 5 years if you invest in small caps and have decent timing success is good enough that I don't want to increase my risk way beyond that. I track my funds 3 to 5 times a week - definitely every day if I think a potential transfer point is coming up. It's a lot of work if you don't like trying to spot trends and doing mathematical analysis. I've been trying to develop statistics to track my performance. I've beaten the S&P over the last decade, but so have all smallcaps. Can't really tell you if I've outperformed smallcap indexes through timing, did well by plowing everything into smallcaps during major downturns and holding until the market fully rebounded, or just picked the right overall strategy for that period of investing primarily in smallcaps. Since 11/05/04 I think I do have the data to answer those questions, but the period is too short to know whether I've got a good method or just a good run of luck. Can tell you I picked the last two major peaks to the day. Unfortunately jumped back in too soon after May's and too late after October's (haven't moved again yet) to get maximum return.

The most important thing in buy and hold is to make sure you are investing to the maximum amount of risk you are comfortable with or can afford. Over the long term, odds are you will earn more the more risk you take (at least up to the point of smallcap mutual funds). Don't invest primarily in smallcaps unles you can stomache losses up to 50% over the short term, or primarily in the broad stock market unles you can handle a 30% drop. I try to look at every down turn as a buying opportunity so it doesn't give me ulcers and usually have some significant portion out of smallcaps when the market tanks. The guys that get rich quick are the ones that can really pick individual stocks short term, but the vast majority of people are not going to be good at that. Aside from the vacations (family time) and the desire to teach, my third motivation to semi retire as a science teacher is to have a lot more time to study and play the market. I'm hopeful enough to think I might end up making even more money, but too conservative to risk it unless I've already reached a comfortable retirement level.

The returns for my new job 401K account are amped up in comparison to my previous employer's account due to a partial investment in an emerging markets fund, but I have no long term experience with it. The downside is even bigger than smallcaps, but recent returns are astounding. I can post the return tables for the types of funds both employers provide if you are curious to compare classes. My lump sum retirement from my previous employer is in a rollover IRA whith a company that has a lot of good funds and low fees, but really discourages attempts at timing. Fortunately (I think) my 401K from my previous employer has almost 3 times as much in it. I've found American Century, T Row Price, and Vanguard all have great online resources for people interested in learning about their funds and investing. Fidelity probably does too, but I'm put off by their fees.

Hopefully I just deleted any information of use to asshole hackers to access my accounts.

Regards,
Mark

PS even if I end up with a multi million dollar estate due to investments and inheritance, I'd still favor the death tax.

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