Confirmed news of Bin Laden's death, or even of his capture and trial, would be a valuabe psychological victory, but would have little substantive effect on the war on terror. It might even have the reverse effect, by creating a martyr. I'm sure that his status as a fugitive has reduced his operational capability enormously, and it could easily be argued that the resources dedicated to his capture could probably be better employed in other anti-terrorist operations. Al-Quaeda and it's sister organizations do not function like armies, which can have their effectiveness drastically reduced by taking out key personnell or facilities. These terror organizations are small and loosely connected, their ideological inspiration may be concentrated and identifiable, but the units themselves are independent, scattered and ephemeral. They are more like muggers than the Mafia.

The Islamofascist movement is more like a plague than a predator, and ultimately, defeating it will require a hygienic and therapeutic approach rather than a surgical one. Military operations against them must continue, but it should be clear that the military conflict is a war of attrition, not a blitzkrieg. Critics of present efforts by the West point out that the root causes of the struggle, past western imperialsm and political intervention, US support of Israel and general economic underdevelopment in the MidEast, must be addressed to ensure a lasting victory.

This may very well be the case, but it should also be clear that terrorist attacks will not cease in the short term while these lofty goals are implemented. The Islamofascist movement has a life of its own now, a momentum, constituency and an infrastructure which is self-perpetuating and pretty much independent of external mollification. It has every incentive to continue operating even if all its goals are achieved. It will simply come up with new ones.

We should also keep in mind that Arab nationalism and Islamic fundamentalism are the key motivations that feed the terror movement.
Recognizing that neither all Arabs nor Muslims are terrorists, (indeed many are our allies and we cannot win without their help!), should not be construed to make us believe that religion and nationalism play no role in this struggle.

The West does have one major advantage in this war, which it has failed to exploit but which our enemies are extremely well aware of and anguish constantly about overcoming. Simply put, Western political and social institutions are simply more humane and prosperous than the medieval theocracies the Islamofascists advocate. Paris or Detroit, in spite of their problems, are simply nicer places to live. Muslim girls want to wear makeup and sexy clothes as well as go to school, pick their own careers and marry the men of their choice. Muslim boys want to listen to rock and roll, date pretty girls, go to movies, and drive muscle cars. And all Muslims want the social and economic benefits of education and a consumer lifestyle. Once removed from the influence of the radical mullahs, they realize that none of this really conflicts with their religious traditions.

Western ideas about political, religious and economic freedom are already a huge threat to the Islamofascists as evidenced by their constant attacks against them in the more secular Muslim societies in the MidEast and North Africa. And as those European countries with troublesome Islamic minorities are learning, failure to provide these benefits to their immigrants, even if not the result of deliberate discrimination, means importing the Jihad to their own shores.

So how do we defeat this threat to our civilization? First we recognize it IS a threat. Simply because we may have made mistakes in evaluating and dealing with it, and these mistakes were the result of short-sighted, infantile, and ideological error, does not mean there is no threat. I deliberately use the term "Islamofascist", in spite of its being coined by partisans with whom I fundamentally disagree, because it is true. Our enemies are both Islamic AND Fascist, by their own admission.

In the short term, we must continue the expensive and crippling security programs which have so far been able to protect us from attack. We continue the intelligence, diplomatic and financial war which has been waged with varying degrees of success so far, and extend it as much as possible with both the carrot and stick. We must recognize the limited value of military action; a lesson I must confess I have had to learn myself over the last few years. On the other hand, we must never rule military intervention out altogether, and we must always be fully prepared to use it. Even if the opportunities for traditional military solutions are limited, that does not mean they will be non-existent, and sometimes just carrying a sheathed sword is the easiest way of persuading another from drawing his.

This struggle will be with us a long time, so long, in fact, that we may never see the end of it in our lifetimes. But we can handle it, think of the Cold War. We took casualties and we made mistakes, but we won, and the holocaust never materialized. And we won for the same reason we will win this one: in the long run, their people will prefer to live like we do, than to live like they do.