I've commented on this before, but the trend is increasing, and Robert's mention of Buchanan refreshed it.

I would lay at least an even chance that of the next three or four presidential elections, one will be won by someone running as an independent. No formal third party as such.

Of the last four presidential elections, a good case can be made that the outcomes of at least two were altered by third party candidates.

"Independent" candidates have a much greater appeal now than mainstream Democrats or Republicans. Both conservatives/rightists and liberal/leftist "bases" are disillusioned with their respective mainstream parties. Of all the "rising stars" in politics, most seem to be either independent, or while members of a mainstream party, have a reputation for bucking that party's positions. Being perceived as independent is at least as important as any objective analysis of their positions. Some "independents" like Jeffords or Sanders are anything but.

McCain is considered a "maverick." Obama was elected on a reputation for independent views.

Leiberman lost his party's primary, came back in the face of hard Democratic opposition, and won as an independent.

Schwarzenegger got his head handed to him as a rightwinger, reinvented himself as an independent, and is in the catbird seat right now. There is little doubt that if he had been born in the U.S., his presidential potential would be on everyone's lips.

Meanwhile, mainstreamers like Hillary and others are losing their glow.

While everyone is handicapping mainstream Democrats and Republicans for 2008, it's possible that there could be quite a surprise.