"Climate Cassandras say the facts are clear and the case is closed. (Sen. Barbara Boxer: "We're not going to take a lot of time debating this anymore.") The consensus catechism about global warming has six tenets: 1. Global warming is happening. 2. It is our (humanity's, but especially America's) fault. 3. It will continue unless we mend our ways. 4. If it continues we are in grave danger. 5. We know how to slow or even reverse the warming. 6. The benefits from doing that will far exceed the costs.
Only the first tenet is clearly true, and only in the sense that the Earth warmed about 0.7 degrees Celsius in the 20th century. We do not know the extent to which human activity caused this.
...
In 1997, when the Kyoto Protocol's essential provisions were known, a "sense of the Senate" resolution declared opposition to any agreement that would do what the protocol aims to do. The Senate warned against any agreement that would require significant reductions of greenhouse-gas emissions in the United States and other developed nations without mandating "specific scheduled commitments" on the part of the 129 "developing" countries, which include China, India, Brazil and South Korea—the second, fourth, 10th and 11th largest economies. Nothing Americans can do to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions will make a significant impact on the global climate while every 10 days China fires up a coal-fueled generating plant big enough to power San Diego. China will construct 2,200 new coal plants by 2030."
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/16960409/site/newsweek/
Well, at least George F. Will bothers to mention coal- Coal is of course the major producer of human emission of CO2. But of course few people in the press mention this- instead they focus of transportation. Sometimes makes me wonder if we had coal powered cars spewing on black smoke and tons of CO2 whether human emission of CO2 would even be considered a problem.
I will mention that in my opinion we could meet Kyoto targets, if we had a massive program to build a large number of nuclear power plants- but even getting a modest increase in new nuclear plants is probably going to be tough because of public's irrational fear of nuclear power. I say this because it's common to say it would cost a lot of money to meet Kyoto targets- but this is only true if we refuse to consider significantly increasing the amount power produced by nuclear. Of course even if all countries [excluding such countries as China and India] were to meet Kyoto, it still wouldn't have much Effect- because the reduction would be quickly overtaken by increase these other countries.
"Carbon dioxide emissions from China might pass those from the United States as early as 2009, according to the World Energy Outlook (WEO) 2006, released earlier this month by the International Energy Agency (IEA) in Paris. The recent forecast moves up by over a decade the agency's previous forecast of China's emergence as the nation with the greatest emissions, a position currently held by the United States. The revision is based on the 13 percent-a-year average expansion in Chinese coal use since 2003."
http://earthtrends.wri.org/updates/node/110
So IF the rate was only 10% increase per year within a couple decades China will have doubled the US's emission- meaning if US could magically have zero CO2 emission China's increase would cancel this out. But I doubt this will occur because China will probably increase it's efficency and use newer technologies- and if nothing else China would probably start to run out of coal [driving it's cost up to mine it and it's due to future shortage it's price, thereby making other energy sources more attractive]. But I don't doubt that China will surpass the US CO2 emission within a couple years.
Inconvenient Kyoto Truths
