Well, - - -
While I want to agree with you, I do trust his intuition on matters like this more than I trust mine.
And this is not a Flame, nothing personal, not to be taken personally, is limited to a very small area, I might, may, nothing certain, just possibly could trust his a bit more than yours.
No offence, please. It's just the time he has available to him to ponder the issue compared to you. You are more of a Renaissance Man, he is more limited in his field of endeavor.
If we were sailing, for instance, I'd say screw him. Even navigating. I would trust you far more than Hawking.