I've been playing my 401K on that notion since prior to the internet tumble and it's served me well. Other than the few insiders that you'll never beat in the market, the entire thing is run by emotion and it's fairly predictable.

I'm reminded of the movie Bambi where there's this one mother bird that is in an absolute panic when the hunters are approaching. Everyone's telling her to stay low and she'll be safe. Pretty soon the emotion just overwhelms her and she has to fly off only to be blasted from the sky.

You can just about feel that panic setting in anymore long before it hits its tipping point. The other competing emotion is greed. The two are in constant turmoil. I just apply the timetable to the market that I can feel within myself and try to guage a few days ahead of time when the tipping point is near. I'll gladly forgo a few days of profit by moving stuff to safe investments a little early and it has never failed me. The downturn always comes. Of course I leave some in the high risk money markets because they'll eventually rebound.

I truly predict though that we're rapidly approaching an historic downturn that will set the country's finances into absolute chaos. Not good news for investors like me that have few options in their 401k besides just stocks and bonds. Now I've always been a survivor and I have a lot of liquidable assets that will hold me over for some time but the days of wine and roses are rapidly drawing to a close. We're just a trigger away right now, a terrorist attack, a natural disaster, a huge corporate scandal but it's coming. All the factors that preceded the 29' crash are rearing their heads again.

But no worries. The HZ will still be there for us to whine about it.

Art