Even if the "surge" worked, it's meaningless. The problems are political and can't be solved militarily. Even the military folks agree upon that, and the military situation has minimal bearing upon the political.

Within several years the US will retreat to it's 4 permanent bases from which it can project air power throughout the region. The US never leaves a country it has occupied without being thrown out. The only cases of which I can think are the Phillipines, Vietnam, Lebanon and maybe Haiti. Haiti, however, didn't have anything the US wanted.

The Iraqis will descend into chaos, the 2+ million of them who are needed to run even a third-world country having left even without the civil/religious wars. And Conservatives will blame the Dems. Go figure. That much is certain.

Distinct possibilities include Bush attacking or sponsoring an attack upon Iran, which will contribute to the chaos in the area. That's already starting as the Kurdish and Iranian tensions are heating up in the north. The tension between the Turks and Kurds could well explode into sustained violence. The Kurds will consolidate their hold on "their" area.

Syria and Iran will gain influence, and Saudi Arabia will be drawn into the religious wars.