I don't think there's any question of that, at least as far as your first two questions are concerned. The others I will save for another time.

1. "Al-Qaeda is more effective as the result of having safe havens in Iraq. Where it had no presence before Bush."

Yes, Al-Quaeda was at best a minor influence in Saddam's Iraq, and now they have a finger in everything and are to a some extent driving events. They have training opportunities and recruits, an ally in the Sunni minority, and they have an opportunity to kill Americans at little cost to themselves. However, the situation is turning for them. Due to their brutal and heavy-handed tactics and insistence on running the show, they are overstaying their welcome in certain parts of Sunni Iraq and are losing the hearts and minds of their natural allies there. I don't think this change of heart is as significant as our own leadership has convinced itself, but it is true nonetheless.

I believe the Shia government and militias, with Iranian help, will come down very hard on the Sunnis (and the "foreigners") as soon as we leave. Ironically, the US armed forces are providing a measure of security for Al-Quaeda in Iraq by keeping the Shia in check. We have to work really hard to find and kill these guys. Amongst Iraqis, their accent gives them away. They can't hide from the locals.

At any rate, Al-Quada has already accomplished it's primary mission in Iraq, start a civil war which would might the Sunnis back in power, frustrate American Kumbaya love-in democratization plans, and provide themselves with an Arab-speaking, oil-rich, and strategically placed shelter state to replace Afghanistan. They succeeded in the first two goals, but screwed up the third. After we leave the Shia will exterminate Al-Quaeda in Iraq.

2. "The Taliban is more influential in Afghanistan and Pakistan since Bush has declared war."

Yes, I think that the war in Iraq marked the turning point of US influence in Afghanistan. The Taliban have been getting stronger ever since. We might be able to recover the military momentum we had there if we could just disentangle ourselves from Iraq, but I fear it may be too late now. We can probably restore our military position, but the bitter taste of Iraq will poison the Afghanistan experience for us too. There will be little stomach with the American public to continue fighting in Afghanistan, even if we are winning hands down and our enemies are getting routed.

The two wars are now indistinguishable and inseparable to most Americans, in spite of their intrinsically very different characters. I don't think the GIs would appreciate getting yanked out of one conflict and being shipped to another, either. They've been jerked back and forth enough already.