This one also predicts a more rather than less intense 2007 hurricane season. Go figure.

The most careful predictions can leave things out. Was reading last night about US nuclear weapons tests in "U. S. Nuclear Weapons - The Secret History", by Chuck Hansen. Several of them were twice what was expected, posting a hazard to those monitoring it. Apparently the difference between 4 and 8 megatons of TNT is significant.

And about one which fizzled, yielding less than 10%.

What I wouldn't do in either thermo-nuclear weapons or weather forecasts is throw out the concept or the predictions. I wouldn't bet against them, for instance.

(By the way, the first nuclear-tipped torpedo was said to have a probability of a kill of 2.0. It was going to get the enemy sub and the launch vehicle.)

Arf