usually a good indication of a recession is that prices go down.
Usually... Not always.
If prices go up during a recession, that is called stagflation.
It can happen, but is rare.
The biggest cause of stagflation is government over-regulation of an economy and sudden impediments to free trade.
Could happen...
With baked goods prices going up while you are already feeling pinched in the pocketbook, I would say thank your government's Ethanol and Farm Subsidy programs combined with sugar import tarrifs.
Just my economic opinion of course.