You might be surprised to know that I think the Australian defense minister has a pretty accurate take on it. I don't think the Afghanistan war has been "won" any more than I think Iraq has been "won." I'm not sure how this disagrees in any large part with the blogger's statement on Afghanistan, which also notes that the most serious problems in Afghanistan are the internal ones.

Here's another opinion from a source I respect, Michael Yon. He says he's going to head for Afghanistan in 2008 to report on the ground there, which is good news.

The most serious issue, IMO, is the Taliban/al Qaeda refuge in western Pakistan. As any military expert could tell you, it's very difficult (to put it mildly) dealing with guerilla wars when the enemy has a refuge across the border.

I don't have any real idea how Pakistan's war on the Taliban is going. There are few reliable sources, so mostly we hear announcements by the Taliban and announcements by the government of Pakistan. The government in Pakistan announces victories, but my own grapevine tells me the Pakistani army doesn't do that hot even in face-to-face open battles, usually an easy win for a professional army. I'm hoping Pakistan allows NATO forces to get a crack at the bases there, but so far, no, unless it's happening in secret.

For the record, unlike a few other NATO allies who shall remain unnamed, Australian fighters have been doing a great job in Afghanistan.