Space X's Dragon is also farther along than the CEV
My bet is on Space X to be the winner getting there first. One thing I like about the private space companies is how each of them seems to be focusing on one component of a total space program. Space X is building a launcher and capsule, Bigelow is working on habitation modules for orbital stations and other outposts, Armadillo is working on lunar landing capability, and Ad Astra is working on deep space VASIMR propulsion.
They're acting like seperate design bureaus in a larger organized space program. It's like they're in agreement on working together.