Interesting essay, ER, as always.

A couple of points:

I've brought it up before, but the Project for the New American Century outlined the areas of the world that needed to be brought into democratic capitalism in order to secure American dominance as the sole super-power. They defined a belt of the lower latitudes as the target of their desired efforts, areas that are not dominated by Caucasians.

To pursue the geologic metaphor, the ultimate cause of an earthquake is differential stress. If pressure is applied from all directions, no big deal. It is when stress is un-equal that deformation occurs. Under some conditions, the deformation is elastic, plastic, or brittle. High confining pressures keep the deformation ductile. While great changes occur over time, they are not technically failure of the rock. When the rock is brittle, or the stress is applied quickly, failure occurs.

This failure begins at a single point (the hypocenter) and spreads outward along a predictable plane, forming a ellipsoidal area of slip, which eventually dies out. I suppose the start of WWI fits this metaphor.

I'm still considering this idea, formulating some ideas, and hope to comment more thoughtfully when I have time.