I'm thinking of the big picture, though, the longer term. I think the demand for oil is no longer on an ever-upward path. Maybe we have reached "peak oil", and from here on out, efficiency, and alternate and renewable energy, accelerated by growing environmental conscience and consciousness, is naturally causing a decline in burning of oil. In other words, the Saudis may be surprised when the market doesn't rebound as elastically as it has in the past, and their plan isn't as lucrative as ER speculates. The oil market may be getting a little arthritic in its old age.

That's not to say we didn't need, and still don't need, strong governmental action. Decline in burning one carbon-based fuel doesn't mean a decline in burning others; our goose could cook faster if we turn from oil to something worse. Market forces can often get you into the right ballpark, but sometimes they're just a bull in a china shop.
I'm thinking of the big picture, though, the longer term. I think the demand for oil is no longer on an ever-upward path. Maybe we have reached "peak oil", and from here on out, efficiency, and alternate and renewable energy, accelerated by growing environmental conscience and consciousness, is naturally causing a decline in burning of oil. In other words, the Saudis may be surprised when the market doesn't rebound as elastically as it has in the past, and their plan isn't as lucrative as ER speculates. The oil market may be getting a little arthritic in its old age.

That's not to say we didn't need, and still don't need, strong governmental action. Decline in burning one carbon-based fuel doesn't mean a decline in burning others; our goose could cook faster if we turn from oil to something worse. Market forces can often get you into the right ballpark, but sometimes they're just a bull in a china shop.