"...they will find it. And develop it. Right now it is cheaper to buy it."

This isn't true. A nation could die from want of oil. Need is not driving factor- it never has been. It's freedom which is the driving factor. Need might give the force needed to allow freedom- it might not also. History generally indicates that most of the time it doesn't.

"People and markets follow the path of least resistance. This field in the US will be exploited only as increasing resistance among other paths to oil."

Well, when you speak of people and markets this assumes a level of freedom.
Funny thing is no with any brains ever thought Socialism was a sustainable plan.
It was sold as a bridge, not a road.

"When China's resource technocracy matches their consumption they will have huge armies of engineers and drills exploiting their own backyard."

No, not really.
The only hope is in the Chinese having a bigger middle class [and obviously with size, presumably more of a voice {then of the question is there any brains involved in that voice}].
The size of any army [whether soldiers or engineers is pretty much a side issue]. Now, maybe if some these engineers will get hired by Exxon or something and they could get some clues. And maybe the racist, bigoted and stupid Chinese leadership will be more inclined to listen to a Chinese person.
But how much have the Chinese leadership done this in regards to the people of Hong Kong, or the same question is to what degree that they are stupid?
If little good comes eventually from the millions of people of Hong Kong, then the same little good will come from a million [or 50 million] man army of engineers.

You want proof? Look at Saudi Arabia- probably one of highest trained group people you wish to find and a fairly rich group.
Maybe you could the saying, if train them well enough, they will leave the country.