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re: On hurricanes and climate

From Department of Atmospheric Science Colorado State University pdf from this previous post.

The entire read is worth it.

9 Was Global Warming Responsible for the Large Upswing in
2004-2005 US Hurricane Landfalls?

The U.S. landfall of major hurricanes Dennis, Katrina, Rita and Wilma in 2005 and the four Southeast landfalling hurricanes of 2004 (Charley, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne) raised questions about the possible role that global warming played in these two unusually destructive seasons.
The global warming arguments have been given much attention by many media references to recent papers claiming to show such a linkage. Despite the global warming of the sea surface that has taken place over the last 3 decades, the global numbers of hurricanes and their intensity have not shown increases in recent years except for the
Atlantic (Klotzbach 2006).
The Atlantic has seen a very large increase in major hurricanes during the 13-year period of 1995-2007 (average 3.8 per year) in comparison to the prior 25-year period of 1970-1994 (average 1.5 per year). This large increase in Atlantic major hurricanes is primarily a result of the multi-decadal increase in the Atlantic Ocean thermohaline
circulation (THC) that is not directly related to global temperature increase. Changes in 26 ocean salinity are believed to be the driving mechanism. These multi-decadal changes have also been termed the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO).
There have been similar past periods (1940s-1950s) when the Atlantic was just as active as in recent years. For instance, when we compare Atlantic basin hurricane numbers over the 15-year period from 1990-2004 with an earlier 15-year period (1950-1964), we see no difference in hurricane frequency or intensity even though the global
surface temperatures were cooler and there was a general global cooling during 1950-1964 as compared with global warming during 1990-2004.
Although global surface temperatures have increased over the last century and over the last 30 years, there is no reliable data available to indicate increased hurricane frequency or intensity in any of the globe’s other tropical cyclone basins besides the Atlantic. Meteorologists who study tropical cyclones have no valid physical theory as to why hurricane frequency or intensity would necessarily be altered significantly by small amounts (< ±1oC) of global mean temperature change.
In a global warming or global cooling world, the atmosphere’s upper air
temperatures will warm or cool in unison with the sea surface temperatures. Vertical lapse rates will not be significantly altered. We have no plausible physical reasons for believing that Atlantic hurricane frequency or intensity will change significantly if global ocean temperatures continue to rise. For instance, in the quarter-century period from 1945-1969 when the globe was undergoing a weak cooling trend, the Atlantic basin experienced 80 major (Cat 3-4-5) hurricanes and 201 major hurricane days. By contrast, in a similar 25-year period from 1970-1994 when the globe was undergoing a general
warming trend, there were only 38 major hurricanes (48% as many) and 63 major hurricane days (31% as many). Atlantic sea surface temperatures and hurricane activity do not necessarily follow global mean temperature trends.
The most reliable long-period hurricane records we have are the measurements of US landfalling tropical cyclones since 1900 (Table 13). Although global mean ocean and Atlantic sea surface temperatures have increased by about 0.4oC between these two 50-year periods (1900-1949 compared with 1958-2007), the frequency of US landfall
numbers actually shows a slight downward trend for the later period. If we chose to make a similar comparison between US landfall from the earlier 30-year period of 1900-1929 when global mean surface temperatures were estimated to be about 0.5°C colder
than they were during the 30-year period from 1976-2005, we find exactly the same US hurricane landfall numbers (54 to 54) and major hurricane landfall numbers (21 to 21).
We should not read too much into the two hurricane seasons of 2004-2005. The activity of these two years was unusual but well within natural bounds of hurricane variation. In addition, following the two very active seasons of 2004 and 2005, both 2006 and 2007 had slightly below-average and average activity, respectively, and only one Category 1 hurricane (Humberto) made United States landfall.

This section starts on page 25 and there is more.

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