WASHINGTON (Reuters) - "Iran is not in a revolutionary or even pre-revolutionary stage."

"That was the assessment of the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency in August 1978, at a time when Iran's ruler was America's closest ally in the Middle East. The Defense Intelligence Agency, a month later, predicted that the Shah of Iran, "is expected to remain actively involved in power over the next 10 years."

"If U.S. intelligence on Iran was bad in the 1970s, when the United States had a sizable embassy and officials could move freely around the country, how is it now, after 28 years without official contacts and no American presence on the ground? Just as bad? Very bad? Barely there?

"To hear U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice tell it: "You ... never know what you don't know, particularly in a fairly opaque place like Iran. And you would be surprised what it does to both your diplomatic and intelligence capability to not be in the country ... We don't really have very good veracity or a feel for the place."

Arf