"We won't be seeing manned Mars missions any time soon, at least through NASA."

First off, the more we learn about Mars, the more we understand that it is simply not like the Earth. Demand for manned Mars flight drops.

Second, we're in a major economic crisis, brought on by the end of easy oil, and the money printed to pay for this damned war. Demand for manned Mars flight drops.

Third, it is beginning to look like we can not even terra form Mars. Demand for manned Mars flight drops.

Fourth, robots and orbiting imagers are getting better. Demand for manned fMars flight drops.

Finally, we won't be seeing any manned Mars missions from anyone until back contamination is cleared. The only way to do that is by long range autonomous rovers, and the best way may be by private sector initiatives.

Fifth, we have 2 real potential impact problems to deal with, so manned Mars flight moves to third priority.

"And the real sad part is, most citizens won't care and many will actually applaud
the idea as a misguided attempt to save money "to solve our problems on Earth
first" - oy.

"Sad" for you. But dealing with impact hazard adequately will require Moon based man constructed/tended sensors, so cheer up. We can go to Mars later, using the technology developed.

"Don't worry, we'll have Virtual Mars software games up and running soon, so the
kids will think they're on the real planet and they won't have to go anywhere and
they won't know the difference."

Those are going to be great products. I'm looking forward to them.

For me, the possibility of manned flight to Mars in my lifetime ended with the collapse of the roof of the Energia storage building.

China bought the engines as scrap.