By this point in October the two candidates are perhaps fighting over only the last 10%-15% of the electorate. The rest have made up their minds, and with the nation's focus to surely remain on the economy all the way through Nov. 4, it's very difficult to see how McCain is going to close that gap. In fact, not since Truman in 1948 has a candidate come from this far behind in the Gallup poll to win in November. That's the magnitude of the challenge facing McCain at this point, and frankly, Obama is a heck of a lot smarter of a campaigner than Thomas Dewey and I just don't see him blowing it in the last few weeks.