I think the "hidden" prejudice vote is significant, 10% to 11% if not a bit more. That means he'd have to have about a 15% lead in the polls going in.

Added to that are the Diebold states. If it gets close in a Diebold state, Diebold can kick in and supply the necessary margin.

If that's necessary, the Rs will have a lot of election mischief to try to divert attention from those shenanigans for a couple of weeks.

I think there is a very real chance Obama could lose. Not fairly, not honestly, but the Rovian Republicans haven't been concerned with those words.

It will be interesting to see if McCain can get the election into the Supreme Court. He could attempt to "bundle" a series of voter registration irregularities with a series of campaign donation irregularities and attempt to make it a Constitutional issue.

I'd really like to lose my bets.

Arf