Space/Science — HabitableZone

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re: On topic of energy

http://www.habitablezone.com/space/messages/530655.html
Btw that's a link to earlier thread.

And in earlier in thread:
"As far as I know liquefying H20 wouldn't be much of a problem. And I assume that with the proper thermal design, tanks of water could passively remain warm enough to be in a liquid state. But if not, then warming them shouldn't be too hard. Though as a note, it might be easier to send the water to orbit, if the water is sent frozen.
As far as Electrolysis, I believe it's some where around 4.5 kw/h per kg of water. It's a bit complicated due to various catalysts and methods one might use.
Let's assume 2 to 2.5 kwhs per lb
200 tons: 400,000 lbs 800,000 kw/h to 1 million kw/h.
So, if you have 20 kilowatt solar array that takes 40,000 to 50,000 hrs of sunlight. You would get more than 12 hrs a day, but if at 12 hrs a day it takes 3333 to 4167 days- around 10 years, or 100 tons per 5 years and 20 tons per year. "

If you converting water to rocket fuel where you have 24 hr of sunlight instead of 12 hrs
you convert about 40 tons [instead of 20 tons] per year per 20 kilowatt solar array.

Now suppose you had a situation where one needed to convert water into rocket fuel at
100 tons in LEO, 100 tons at L-1, and 400 tonnes on lunar surface. So 600 tons of water
in total per year. In terms solar arrays: 5 20 kilowatt arrays in LEO, 2 1/2 20 kilowatt arrays
in L-1, and 10 20 kilowatt arrays on lunar surface. Total of 171/2 20 kilowatt arrays or
350 kilowatts of solar arrays.

In comparison if you were to add up all the solar arrays currently in GEO, there would probably more solar power being used at this moment. And ISS has
around 100 kilowatts in it's arrays.

So, what would converting water into rocket fuel have to do with getting energy from space to Earth?
The difference between the solar power being used by gas stations making rocket fuel and ISS and
the numerous birds in GEO, is that gas station would be a market in space for electrical power.

Gas stations will create a market for water, power, and rocket fuel in space for space.
Or in other words, anyone who can provide, water or power to the gas station owner [sell it to them] at cheaper price will cause the gas station owner to buy it. And depending upon how much rocket fuel can to made at a particular cost, will encourage gas station owner to sell as much
rocket fuel as can be made at lowest price that can be profitable.

So the question is who would buy rocket fuel from LEO, L-1, and Lunar surface.
The beginning list could be lunar water miners, lunar power providers, and of course the gas
station owners themselves. And depending upon how much they wanted to "ramp up" their
production [how much capital they want to spend in short term] they alone could use up the amount rocket
fuel said above: 100 tons LEO, 100 tons at L-1, and 400 tonnes on lunar surface per year.

Say an additional buyer of rocket fuel [and thereby power and water] is a company that wants to mine
lunar dirt and sell it on Earth. That company alone could buy a total of 600 tons of rocket fuel per year
[some portion from LEO, L-1, and the lunar surface].
The lunar water and dirt miner in addition to buying power in the form of rocket fuel, could also want buy
electrical power for their operation. In addition they could buyers for stuff which could be made on the moon,
such as heavy and crude metal parts- lunar iron.

Suppose NASA wants to buy rocket fuel for it's Mars Manned mission. Perhaps NASA buys 200 tons
in LEO and 200 tons in L-1 per year
L-1 needs to get water from LEO or lunar surface [though NEOs are also a possiblity]. If rocket fuel is
sold at lunar surface for $2000 per lb and if rocket fuel is sold for $2000 per lb at LEO- the lunar surface
will be a competitive with LEO. It takes about 3 km/sec delta-v from LEO and about 2.5 km/sec from Lunar
surface. Very roughly, it will consume 200 tons of rocket fuel at LEO or the lunar surface to deliver
200 tons of water to L-1. So buying 200 tons at L-1 is actually buying 400 tons of rocket fuel from the
space market.
So at this point, we looking at about 3 times as much electrical power or about 1000 kilowatts in solar arrays.

Now if you want to buy electrical power in space at this point in time, how much would it cost per kw/h?
On the Moon and L-1 one could get 24 hrs of sunlight per day & at LEO is about 1/2 of this. LEO costs
less to ship solar arrays to as compared to L-1 or the Moon. L-1 would less than the Moon [until such time as one could make solar panels {or other ways of generating electricity} on the Moon].

Say, you get 50 watts per lb in terms of solar arrays. With these gas stations, it could cost
$1000 to $2000 per lb to ship to LEO, plus $2000 per lb to ship to L-1, and additional $4000 per lb
to get to the lunar surface. So, power cost are going to be about twice as much on Lunar surface as
in L-1 and power will cost about same in L-1 as in LEO.
So, at 50 watts per lb, a 20 kilowatt array weighs 400 lb, costs $800,000 at $2000 per lb ship, and with
everything say 2 million dollars. If you get a total of 1 million kw/h from it- you could charge somewhere
around $5 per kw/h at LEO and L-1 and $10 per kw/h on lunar surface and be profitable.
The price now is somewhere around $50 per kw/h- though if on ISS, NASA charges $2000 per kw/h.

Now, in order to sell to Earth you need the price of power in Space to be less than about $.05 per kw/h.

But at this point in time, you have a market for solar panels on the Moon- and you could also ship them to L-1.

And some solar panel company that wants to rule the universe, could see that if the cost of
mining water on the moon could lower and power cost could lower, lots and lots of solar panels could
shipped to high earth orbit and sell power to earthlings. So in the future one could have a huge market share.
But at that moment, the solar panel company just needs to get to the point making some relatively small
quantities solar panels on the Moon and beating the cost of shipping the solar panels from Earth to
Lunar surface.
Etc.

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