The current calm has been purchased by the US through bribing the Sunni's, keeping the clamp on the Shiites while giving the Kurds their own way.

The ethnic cleansing of neighborhoods is almost complete, too, and that's been a big contribution to the calm. Under Saddam even Christians were safe, something no longer true.

When the military presence of the US disappears and the Shiites of the government are turned loose, when the bribing of the Sunnis stops, and when the Kurds are required to share the wealth all bets are off.

The current calm, which is described as a "win", is an illusion fed by money and military force which will end.

The Sunni are sitting in central Iraq without oil revenues, and will be sitting ducks.

Prediction - Bush will leave, Americans will withdraw as they must, the bribes will end, as they must, and Conservatives will scream that Obama is at fault for the chaos which will follow.

Arf