I know global temperature have been flat or declining for more than a decade.
And I know no one would bet that global temperature is going to be higher than 6.4C by the end of this Century.
That 6.4 C is unrealistically high, but even if global temperature were to rise by this amount within a century, it still would not have serious consequence within that century.
IF global temperature were to rise by "only" 3 C within a century, it would be an alarming amount and with that amount warming it could have consequences in future centuries [assuming the trend continued- so obviously an even higher increase of 6.4 per century would be even more alarming]
BUT what we have actually had is a increase of about .6 C per century and starting from a time period which was cooler [Little Ice Age]. That amount of increase is not alarming nor a problem, whereas if we were to lose that increase of .6 within the next few decades- that *could* indicate a real problem for the future.
Global temperatures nor global CO2 levels have NOT been accelerating.
In other words, of the .6 C increase in global temperature in the last Century, about 1/2 occurred in the first 50 years and about half occurred in last 50 years.
[What Dr. Field says about China producing more CO2 than the US is accurate and probably within a few decades it will produce twice as much as US. And China and India will produce more half of human CO2 emission. And of course the Bush administration was ahead of this particular issue by working an agreement with India regarding nuclear technology. No doubt Obama will be given some credit for this, but if you hoping Obama will actually do something instead merely saying grand things- well, I hope you are right. But if Dr. Field has concluded that the Obama administration will do less than Bush, he is much wiser than he seems.]
Therefore if global temperature were to rise by more than 6 C within a century, it would reasonable to expect global temperatures to rise by about .6 C per decade. And since global temperature have been flat to declining for last 10 tens of more, that means one would need to have more than .6 C increase in the next decade have have any hope of being on track for such a dramatic increase within the 21 century.
I think it's quite possible that the next IPCC report will have a lower number than then their high end prediction of 6.4 C, just like they lowered their past predictions from their earlier reports. Though it's possible they will "compromise" by going back to their earlier prediction which included a decline in global temperature and higher number than 6.4 C per century.
But predicting what the politicians of the IPCC will say in there next report, assuming they actually get around to making one, is about as difficult as predicting the weather.
Meanwhile cycle 24 continues to be very quiet, and they had a tiny sunspot from cycle 23 recently.
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