the US Navy should be able to overwhelm the Chinese.

Unfortunately, for us, our Navy is scattered all over the world, theirs is all in one place. And in the event of hostilities, they will get to pick the time and place that favors them the most.

We do have bases all over the Western Pacific that threaten the Chinese littoral, but they are building their own IN the S China sea, all easily supported by land-based aircraft. Our force structure and supply chains depend on our allies cooperating with us in a coordinated and aggressive fashion.

Most importantly, there hasn't been a major naval conflict in decades, there has been a lot of new technology introduced, none of it ever tested in combat. History tells us this situation can quickly spin out of control, and develop in very unexpected ways.

The possibility of a trade war only makes a shooting war more likely. N Korea will almost certainly try to take advantage of the situation. I have a very bad feeling about this, and I have absolutely no idea how things will unfold once shooting starts.