http://gsn.nti.org/gsn/nw_20090225_4155.php

North Korea a Month Away From Launch, U.S. Official Says

Wednesday, Feb. 25, 2009

A high-level U.S. intelligence official said that North Korea would need another month for a possible launch of its Taepodong 2 long-range missile, the Associated Press reported yesterday (see GSN, Feb. 24).

There has been a significant increase in activity at a launch site in northeast North Korea. Pyongyang said this week it is preparing a satellite launch, but leaders in the United States and other nations remain wary of the regime's intentions.

"Indicators of potential launch light up more each day, but we're still a ways off," according to the intelligence official. Other observers have suggested that the launch could be more imminent.

North Korea as of Feb. 18 did not appear to have moved any rocket to the launch pad, said Tim Brown, head of the imagery analysis firm Talent-Keyhole.com.

"There's more activity here than I have seen in two or three years," Brown said. "I'd anticipate a launch within weeks, not days" (Jean Lee, Associated Press/Fort Worth Star-Telegram, Feb. 24).

The Taepodong 2 is designed to have a flight range of 4,200 miles, though some observers said that any upcoming test could feature an upgraded missile able to reach greater distances. The last test of the weapon ended in failure when it failed less than one minute after takeoff in July 2006. That launch led to a U.N. Security Council resolution prohibiting North Korea from conducting ballistic missile activities.

The same launch pad is being prepared for the coming event, a U.S. defense official told Reuters, also noting the absence so far of a rocket (Reuters/Yahoo!News, Feb. 24).

It might take post-launch imagery analysis to determine whether a launched object was a missile or space booster, AP reported. A satellite's trajectory would not be confused with that of a missile.

Another launch attempt would come amid the latest deadlock in the years-long diplomatic effort to persuade Pyongyang to give up its nuclear weapons and related operations (see GSN, Feb. 24). Tensions are also high between North and South Korea, where President Lee Myung-bak has taken a hard line on relations with the neighboring state since taking office one year ago.

Pyongyang could hope to use the missile test to force the United States to enter into direct talks on the nuclear standoff, said analyst Kim Yong-hyun, of Dongguk University in Seoul.

"The North has sent the ball back into the U.S. court," he said (Lee, Associated Press).
U.S. President Barack Obama and Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso discussed the nuclear and missile threats during their meeting yesterday in Washington, Agence France-Presse reported.

"Regarding the missile issue, we discussed how the initial reactions are important. After a missile is launched, we discussed that what is important is how other, foreign nations would act," Aso said following the meeting.

Aso and Obama pledged to cooperate "to verifiably eliminate North Korea's nuclear program and to deal with the problem of North Korea's missiles," the White House said (Agence France-Presse/Spacewar.com, Feb. 25).

There have been reports that the U.S. or Japanese militaries might use missile defense assets in the region to try to bring down a North Korean missile.

However, top Pentagon weapons tester Charles McQueary said in an annual report to lawmakers that he lacked "high confidence" in the U.S. ability to intercept a North Korean weapon, Bloomberg reported yesterday.

“Additional test data collected under realistic conditions is necessary to increase confidence,” he stated.

Others were more optimistic about the capabilities of the U.S. missile shield, which includes land- and sea-based assets in the United States and beyond.

The United States has "the upper hand overall" against missile threats, but "it's always possible" that North Korea "could build countermeasures that would fool our system," said Brookings Institution analyst Michael O'Hanlon.

U.S. interceptors are designed “to combat a simple threat from North Korea and Iran, and that’s a capability the nation has never had, and now we do,” said Missile Defense Agency spokesman Rick Lehner. “We continue to incorporate ground tests into our modeling and simulation with very good results" (Tony Capaccio, Bloomberg, Feb. 24).