1) What kind of engineer are you? I can readily believe you are an engineer based on the generally logical nature of your posts, but I'm betting you are in a different field than me. It might help to find common ground and/or communicate better if I used analogies where our fields overlapped.

2) Do you believe the Moon has anywhere near the amount of resources needed to support human life that Mars has?

3) Do you realize that putting a moon base on the path to Mars adds hundreds of billions to getting there and basically at least doubles the cost of putting a potentially self sustaining base on Mars?

4) You speak correctly of program termination risk, yet don't seem to see any termination risk in picking yet another ambiguous technological development path similar to that of the last 30 years. Am I missing some critical difference?

5) Where do you get the idea I believe Mars is about instant gratification? I consider the question of life outside of Earth to be one of the biggest scientific questions left unanswered. I see sending humans to Mars is a big part of aswering that question as well as the surest bet for a sustainable starting point for colonizing space. Commercialization is an alternative, but it has been an available option for 30 years to no avail. Mars has not been attempted. Don't ask me why, but there really are seemingly rational people who want to go and live there. I'd like to visit, but see the Moon as a more likely near term tourist destination for both me and the general public. That's not NASA's job though. We shoould use NASA's research function to develope the technology to enable NE commercialization with new heavy lift capability. That commercialization will in turn lower costs so that the some of most extreme explorers amongst us can go to Mars permanently. I see shooting for Mars as a way to energize a feedback loop that includes NE commercialization and a return to the Moon and shooting for the Moon as a replay of a dead end. I also see a lack of a destination as a replay of the lack of progress over the past three decades. As an engineer you should know you can't make a good product without clear requirements.

Regards,
Mark