But I can't think of any reason to rule it out, either. But I do think he is likelier to start a war, particularly one he thinks he can win with a minimum of risk, because he might want a distraction from some domestic embarrassment.

Of course, a crazed suicidal move is possible from even the sanest, most rational mind during a time of great stress. The real question is, should he, or any other deranged leader, give such an order, would the chain of command carry it out?

I am reminded of the Soviet Air Defense general who refused to launch a counterstrike against the USA when a computer error showed him the USSR was under attack. His instincts told him "this wasn't the Big One". He was right, but his career was ruined. He failed to carry out his orders and his superiors lost confidence in him.

I would like to think the command system has enough checks, balances and redundancies that this couldn't happen, but it won't be the first time things just spun out of control. That's exactly how WWI started.