But its not impossible.

Still, if one is used, it more than likely will be symbolic, like setting one off in the middle of the Black Sea , or high in the ionosphere where it will cause no damage or casualties, but possibly disrupt communications all over Europe.

Still, words like "not impossible", "more than likely" or "unlikely" are a cop-out. If you want a quantitative prediction, a real forecast, we need numbers. So I will make an estimate of the probability it will actually happen: about 10%. What might happen after that, I have no way of knowing...And I'm not sure I want to find out.

That's an attitude, sir, that calls for the most delicate judgment on both sides. Because, as you know, sir, in the heat of action men are likely to forget where their best interests lie and let their emotions carry them away.