Yes the Senate makeup is essentially the same. 50-50 or perhaps 51-49. The element you are failing to address is the shattering of historical trends.

I've said this before but it bears repeating: Midterms nearly always are a big net gain for the opposition party. Add to that the four decade high inflation, increased crime rates, surge in illegal immigration, low public opinion about the state of the economy and direction of the country, and Biden's low 40s approval ratings.

This is an environment that should have been a wipeout in favor of republicans. THEY know it. Democrats know it. You are one of the few people I know, and probably the only democrat, who doesn't see this as a win for Dems.

Also consider this, assuming the GOP takes the House, the margin will be under 10. Some say that empowers MAGA extremists, but there will be about 20 GOP members or more who will be part of the bi-partisan Problem Solvers Caucus of moderates. These are Dems and Repubs who want to move past the partisan food fights and get things done for the country. Those 20 GOP members are more than enough to block the extremists and will have a lot of leverage over what that GOP House might do.