IMO the Blue Origin architecture is more likely to succeed than the SpaceX one. Four New Glenn launches for the lunar transport vehicle/lander are less complicated than a dozen or more Starship lunar lander in-orbit refuelings. The extended Centaur upper stage SLS is developing fits in with the Blue Origin plan.

Unfortunately, both architectures have way too many things that can go wrong. Artemis III tentatively scheduled next summer will test the docking and refueling technologies, but the timelines are almost ridiculously tight. SpaceX’s Starship has only reached orbit once, and has never attempted in-orbit refueling. New Glenn is coming off a disastrous launch pad explosion and hopes to launch its new 9x4 rocket in December or January.

The old Apollo architecture of one launch for the entire mission had so much less that could go wrong.

In a simpler architecture, China’s planned 2030 manned lunar mission requires two separate Long March 10 super-heavy lift rockets to launch in sequence: one carrying the crew spacecraft and the other carrying the lunar lander. They will dock in lunar orbit before the lander descends to the surface