I've been wondering why GWB has been talking about preemptive attacks on sovereign nations and their leaders. Doesn't make sense if one's goal is to stay safe.

The effect of telling people you will strike first, and declaring war upon a nation is to invite an attack, and/or at least guarantee a well-thought out response. It doesn't make sense if you are trying to minimize casualties.

Unless. Without going into the motive, if GWB were trying to goad Iraq into attacking the US he would do exactly what he is doing. Clearly, if anyone were talking about GWB and the US the way GWB is talking about them, we'd attack.

Now, Iraq does have some things which could cause a lot of trouble. At a minimum they have radioactive material, explosives, and means to tranport it. The could easily bring the stuff into the country, bury some barrels around, and wait.

Or, in a response to the US stated intentions to strike preemptively and that the US wants to depose Saddam, they could give al-Qeada some material. It could be brought into the US, and detonated with some deniability on the part of Iraq. Could detonate a dirty bomb in Washington, D.C.

The Bush administration could then say Iraq was the source of material, whether it is true or not, and have a justification to attack the country. A sort of modern-day Gulf of Tonkin.

With the sacrifice of a few thousand Americans he could take over whatever part of the Iraqi economy he wanted.

At least this makes some sense of what he's doing. If he's not trying to goad Iraq into an attack, he truly is as dumb as some of us claim. And no one is that dumb.

Arf