Well, maybe we can cope without a heavy lifter, but that's 3 shuttle launches, and 3 Titan IV's plus 6 in-orbit assembly operations - all to get just 2 men to the Moon. Failure of any one of those 12 elements leads to mission scrub.

(Not total and permanent, I recognise, since parts of the equipment may be already on the Moon, or stuck in orbit, but certainly one would require backups for all hardware)

Total cost: 3*$400 million for the Shuttles
3* 100 million for the Titans
~2-5 billion development cost for the LEV, Hab etc.
3*200 million construction, testing, and maintenance for the LEV fleet
another 2-5 billion for Mission support and NASA Infrastructure.

I recognise the numbers are pretty rubbery, but that looks like $10-15 billion to me. That might be "cheap" in your book, but for that I suspect we could build a new heavy lift system, or at least build a docking adapter for the Energiya and get it all done quicker, cheaper, and safer.

In your model, because you're using shuttle launches, each mission to the moon has a $1 billion penalty up front. How many of these do we need before it's cheaper to do it right and get a decent heavy lifter, which, btw, would just happen to make a manned Mars mission possible.

(Says he, running for cover)