in other words, the Bush Jr/Tumlinson/ Cowing space program.

To re-cap:

I always summed Tumlinson's "vision" for space as being cancel ISS, cancel shuttle, and use the money "saved" for buying a manned flight to Mars from the "private" sector. When you cut through the bullshit of Tumlinson's slogans, that's what it comes down to.

I also always told you that they were likely to get half their plan: the cancellation of ISS and shuttle. Due to immediate circumstances well outside of the range of vision of my crystal balls, the NASA cuts are likely to be elsewhere.

Apparently the Bush Jr line is that 30% to 50% of government spending is for support services, and 20% to 30% savings can be had by competing these support services with public sector firms. What this comes down to is a lot of "consulting", with contracts going to the politically well connected who think the "right" way, and "donate" their money that way as well. Also, look for lower wages and fewer benefits (like health insurance) for workers empployed by these support firms.

Bush Jr would like to try to get tax policy set in accordance with this fantasy, and it's also clear that the 10% standard spending reduction won't be applied to defense spending. The reduction in government spending will then have to come from somewhere, and you don't need your own crystal balls to figure out where: NASA and other government agencies such as DoI.

In rough line with this nonsense, you have Tumlinson and Cowing's start-up OASIS corporation, which is going to offer "private" Mars missions, which of course are going to be paid for by tax dollars. By the way, one of this group's primary goals is to promote back-contamination just as soon as they can.

You have to remember that I've always been in favor and attempted to put together pure private sector Mars robotic missions, with no (NO, as in zero, which is to say 0) government funding at all. If Tumlinson thinks he will be able to feed peacefully at the public trough with this latest scam, he needs to guess again. If Cowing thinks that the pay off for the hatchet job he did on Goldin is going to be this, he can stop fantasizing now.

Then you have FAIR, which seems to be a way of firing most NASA hires which occured during the Clinton administration. I suppose that is FAIR, as to the victor go the spoils, and spoiled it will be.

When I made my predictions I could not foresee Bush Jr getting the nomination, little less winning the Presidency. Of course, ISS and shuttle won't be killed, as they are major Florida industries, and one key to the economic health of a state run by Bush Jr's brother. The launch of satellites for a missile defense system is not likely to make up the economic loss that would occur from their cancellation.

All this still leaves that 10% "savings" to come up with.

How this will play out is still unclear, as it is likely that due to his and the reactionary Republican's mis-handling of the economy Bush Jr will face solid Democratic majorities in both houses after the next election. Bush Jr may try to triangulate between the reactionary Republicans in the House and anyone with common sense in the Senate, but I think that Clinton used up that technique. The only people able to triangulate may be Senate Republicans, but there's little wiggle room left.

Of course, there may another terrorist attack with weapons of mass destruction between now and the elections, or the current situations in either of the former British colonies may go up.

EP