"Me, I have NO FAITH in climate models. Not even future, "better" ones. They tend to confirm the bias (even unconsciously) of the researcher. Remember all those solar system formation models pre-1995 that always constructed variations of OUR solar system? Not ONE Hot Jupiter in the bunch. Totally bogus and a affirmation of the beliefs of the "researchers"."
Predicting climate is similar to predicting the stock market.
Look at a long term graph of the stock market, and it predicts that the stock market does go up. Look at a graph global temperature for say last 500 years (recent) and there is a upward trend. Predicting what the global temperature for next couple of decades is similar betting what the stock market will do in next 2 months.
So, do you want to buy IBM stock today?
Generally it's probably going to go up in value. So buying IBM stock (or any stock at random at any time) will make you money- on average. Of course you can lose money and/or might not make as much as you hoped for- the shorter the time you invest the money, generally the less likely you will get a good return on your investment. (Market players can make lots of money in short term- depending on their strategy and the "type" of market [bull/bear/or neither] but this is "another story").
So in general predictions, I would say that now is good time to invest in stock market and global temperatures will rise over next decade. If you lose your shirt in the stock market, or an ice age starts, don't blame me:)
Btw, I'm not arguing against what you said, there is no more reason to trust these climate models any more than listening to a Bull or Bear. The good news is that climate models have a reasonable chance of becoming more accurate, thereas the stock market though in ways is much simpler, has qualities of life and will therefore will never become as predictable.
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Re: How do you differentiate...
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- Sciam Debate On Global Warming
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