What a mess.

Years ago, when the X-33 contract was first announced, I made a number of predictions about what the first true RLV will look like:

- It could be SSTO, but will most likely be TSTO.
- It will use dense fuels, not LH2.
- It will be fairly simply constructed, utilizing axisymmetric tankage, for example.
- It will be piloted.
- It will be either VTVL or HTHL -- not VTHL.

I stand by these predictions today. Obviously, the Venturestar managed to go against all of these notions, and Lockheed's SLI entry is only marginally better. Some of the other SLI entries are less outlandish, but they still have a quite a ways to go. One thing that I do like about SLI is that it is spurring the development of new hydrocarbon engines -- *that* is quite important, even if these 15 turkeys never make it off the ground.

Cheers,

Nathan.

P.S.: If the Lockheed-Martin design makes the cut into the final three, I shall oficially be sick.