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Re: Interannual variability of weather in the Martian northern polar regions

Thanks for the link on Victor Baker's research on recent glaciers and liquid water on Mars.
Johann Helgason argues that there are *currently* active glaciers on Mars in Tharsis:

Does Mars Hide Vast Water Deposits?
http://spacedaily.com/news/mars-water-99b.html

The recent GRS reports that show ice deposits in the Tharsis low-latitude region as well as in the expected mid to high latitudes on Mars is supportive of this idea.

Victor Baker's argument for the recurrent episodes of standing bodies of liquid water on Mars attributes them to volcanic activity. However, theoretical calculations show that based simply on known variations in Mars orbital parameters such as obliquity, perihelion, and eccentricity there should have been periods that would have allowed standing bodies of water on Mars for days on end:

From: Robert Clark (rgregoryclark@yahoo.com)
Subject: Open water pools on Mars in geologically recent time.
Newsgroups: sci.astro, alt.sci.planetary, sci.geo.geology, sci.geo.meteorology
Date: 2002-03-09 01:19:55 PST
"In the post below I suggested that the period of Mars highest
obliquity coinciding with its greatest eccentricity and closest
perihelion might have allowed standing bodies of liquid water on Mars.
"A report to be presented at the 2002 LPSC conference will argue
that such an orbital coincidence would permit both daytime and
nightime temperatures to be above zero for days on end. This suggests
there could be open pools of water on Mars over several days, if not
open water seas:
NEAR-SURFACE LIQUID WATER ON MARS.
Lunar and Planetary Science XXXIII (2002)
'During Mars' present orbital configuration, night-time temperatures
everywhere on the planet are always well below 273K, which effectively
prevents sub-surface temperatures from reaching the melting point for
sustained periods. However, when Mars' obliquity approaches 45°, its
eccentricity approaches 0.11, and summer solstice in one of Mars'
hemispheres coincides with perihelion, the model results show that
middle and high-latitude surface temperatures during summer can in
fact remain well above the melting temperature throughout the day.
During summers at high-obliquity, poleward-facing slopes at middle
latitudes are warmer at night than flat surfaces or equator-ward
facing slopes because they receive direct sunlight at more favorable
angles during the late evening and early morning hours.'
http://www.lpi.usra.edu/meetings/lpsc2002/pdf/2049.pdf
"There is a question of how often this coincidence could occur. The
estimates of Mars orbital parameters vary. In the book _The Planet
Mars: A History of Observation and Discovery_, William Sheehan gives
estimates of the orbital parameters:
'Mars's asymmetric polar caps and cycle of southern hemisphere spring
and summer dust storms reflect the current position of its axis and
the eccentricity of its orbit. At present, Mars's axial tilt, or
obliquity---25.2° from the perpendicular---is very nearly the same as
the Earth's (23.5°). The current agreement, however, is a sheer
coincidence. Both Earth and Mars bulge slightly at the equator because
of the centrifugal force of their rotation. The gravitational pull of
the Sun on these equatorial bulges causes the axial tilts of both
Earth and Mars to vary over time. Earth's axial tilt is largely
stabilized by the presence of the Moon, and so ranges through only
four degrees. Mars, which lacks a large and massive satellite, wobbles
in a much more extreme fashion---at the current epoch, its axial tilt
ranges between extremes of 15° and 35° over a period of 120,000 years,
with the present value lying close to the mean.14 The spin axis also
wobbles, or precesses, just like a top slowing down, with a period of
173,000 years (compared with 25,800 years for the Earth). This is the
effect that on Earth gives rise to the well-known precession of the
equinoxes.'
Chapter 13: Vikings---and Beyond
http://www.uapress.arizona.edu/online.bks/mars/chap13.htm
"From the orbital parameters given on this page, the time for the
orbital coincidence could be anywhere from 10's of thousands of years
to 10's of millions of years."
http://groups.google.com/groups?th=af29c20ba3d3f307

Bob Clark

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