Interesting. His near-term scenario is set in 2020, just 8 years away. 8 years ago we were invading Iraq and Afghanistan.

I believe the Tea Partiers are a last-gasp attempt to regain former glories, and to do it by fiat - if we say we're great, we're great. Watch the scans of the stands after a team which is in 6th place in the league and behind 32 to 7 scores a touchdown. There is always some maroon waving a finger indicating that team is "Number 1".

I think a big, first wake-up for the US will be when the ROW threatens then imposes sanctions for not following the Kyoto protocol, or somesuch. The US will scream it's guts out, and follow Iran's well-blazed path of resistance and work-arounds. It will be humbling, though.

As an aside, I think the A-Bomb was the turning point for America. Traditionally the seas on either side of us have protected us from war on our soil. The Bomb has made traditional war so terrible that no first world country has to be worried about being invaded, so there is a more level playing field. India, Brazil, China, Russias, Europe are all free to rise and compete and they have and will. The US is no longer unique, and has squandered treasure on foolish adventures which have left the ROW shaking their heads.

Look back 10 years and if you can't admit France was right you are a good, card-carrying Tea Partier, and by definition incapable of assessing the situation.