Space/Science — HabitableZone

Space/Science » in reply to Re: Terrific!

You're right - if successful, the Eclipse will kill planes like the Baron

At over a million dollars, prices for new Barons are simply obscene. That plane was certified about 40 years ago, the tooling is long paid for, and they surely aren't that expensive to produce. Sure, limited volume drives up costs but that is ridiculous. The Eclipse will probably cut into sales of similarily priced planes like the CarbonAero.

Still, I'm most interested in seeing new technology getting certified and into production. Composite construction is cool but there's still a lot of life left in aluminum construction like the Eclipse, especially with ideas like friction-stir welding. Airbus is going to use friction-stir for the monster A-380, so it isn't some fringe concept. It'll provide better welds with much lower parts count and labor costs compared to conventional riveting.

The economics of light plane production are harsh. Back in the 1970s when they were producing about 10,000 planes a year, you could buy a plane like a Cessna 172 for about $30,000 brand new. Today, they sell for about $170,000. Low sales volume means prices are high for everything, especially the engine. A new Lycoming O-320, basically a 50-60 year old engine design, costs about $20,000. Even more mundane things like attitude indicators sell for about $500 each in small quantities. All of that tends to drive costs through the roof.

New technology like low parts count diesel engines have the potential to lower costs substancially, both for production and operation. Teledyne-Continential's 2-cycle turbocharged diesel has far fewer parts than a gas engine, is designed for a 3000 hour TBO, and burns about 25% less fuel (and it's lower cost jet fuel to boot) than the equivalent gasoline engine. If they ever get off their butts and get the engine into production, I predict they'll sell lots of them to the retrofit market. I'd certainly consider switching to one of those engines for my Cessna when it comes time to overhaul the engine. I'll bet a lot of other people would do the same.

At the same time, there is a revolution underway in avionics technology. Glass cockpits started in military aircraft, made their way to airliners, and are now showing up in high-end light planes. Innovative companies like Blue Mountain Avionics are developing some exciting stuff for experimental aircraft. There is work underway to get the equipment TSO'd for certification. If they succeed, cockpits will never be the same again.

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