You can tell by two things. First, they're called "models", meaning an attempt to get closer to what is real than random guessing.

And, they have to be wrong because if they are right conservatives might have to limit pollution, for instance. Wouldn't want to do that, so the models are wrong. (Called emotional reasoning.)

The models aren't perfect. No question. And, as I suggested before, they're a bit like driving home. May not ever be pointed exactly toward the house, but you get closer and closer and closer. Much better than random.

Watching the complaints about models and global warming is a hoot. One realizes how hooked into "stuff" some folks are, at the expense of reason, how addicted to money or it's equivalent to the point of abandoning intellect.

Emotional reasoning. Man has no effect on the Earth except maybe positive because changing scares me.

Arf