(I love talking to myself)

Based on the scenario outlined in the previous post, here is the timeline by which I imagine the commercial development of space proceeding:

2003 : A handful of X-Prize competitors begin test flights, although none to full altitude. SpaceX launches its first first Falcon Explorer lightlift* vehicle.

2004 : Late in the year, the X-Prize is won, amid an appropriate media frenzy. SpaceX launches a couple of Falcon Explorers, working out the kinks and building up its reputation. (Allowing for a bit of realism, I'm going to guess that their medium-lightlift vehicle slips to 2005).

2005 : A couple of companies begin offering suborbital joyrides, collectively making a few dozen flights (and earning almost 100 people their astronaut wings). The price initially begins at $100,000, but falls by 50% each year for the next 5 years. These suborbital outfits also begin profiting from flying microgravity experiments and launching nanosats and microsats. SpaceX launches over a dozen Falcon Explorers, and also launch the first of their medium-lightlift vehicles.

2006 : More suborbital outfits enter the market (while some of the pioneers go bankrupt), and the price of access to suborbital space continues to fall precipitously. Several hundred people earn their astronaut wings. The success of the Falcon Explorers gives birth to a whole new class of rapidly-developed and cheap yet robustly-constructed nano, micro, and light satellites, as LEO suddenly becomes affordable to universities, small businesses, and even consortiums of non-profits and highschools. Meanwhile, the increasing success of their medium-lightlift vehicles begin to foreshadow similar developments in different markets...

2007 : Hundreds of suborbital flights take place, with almost 2,000 people earning their astronaut wings. A competitor (perhaps Microcosm) emerges to challenge SpaceX in providing cheap orbital launches. Meanwhile, SpaceX launches their first medium-lift vehicle, with a powerful new first stage and a modified Falcon Explorer first stage as the second stage. They also reveal a collaboration with an experienced suborbital company to produce a crewed orbital vehicle.

2008 : The enthusiasm for suborbital spaceflight begins to taper off, as it loses its novelty. Nonetheless, almost 3,000 people earn their astronaut wings this way. The first private orbital spaceflight takes place, in a 3-person craft launched atop the a medium-lightlift vehicle, which orbits the Earth several times. The ticket price is initially $5 million per person, but like the suborbital ventures, this falls by 50% per year for the next five years. Now that SpaceX has proven that it can be done and that new markets exist, further competitors in the cheap spacelaunch field begin to emerge. Meanwhile, SpaceX's medium-lift vehicle begins to decimate the Old Gaurd of the spaceflight industry.

2009 : Suborbital flights remain at constant levels, while over a hundred people make orbital flights, at increasingly reasonable prices. A cheap medium-heavylift vehicle is developed, capable of launching over 50,000 lbs into LEO.

2010 : Using the new medium-heavylift capability, Bigelow Aerospace launches a cluster of several Salyut-class modules, forming the first true space hotel. Several hundred civillians make orbital spaceflights. Nobody bothers keeping track of the suborbital ones anymore.

2011 : A fully-reusable space ferry commences operation, capable of shuttling a dozen people to and from orbit. Bigelow's space hotel is expanded to accommodate them, and nearly a thousand people orbit the earth this year.

2012 : A true heavylift launch vehicle is developed, capable of launching over 100,000 lbs into LEO. Additional companies enter the space hotel business. Thousands of people travel to and from LEO, and scores of people are orbiting the Earth at any given moment.

2013 : Bigelow's "Lunar Cycler" is under construction. A suborbital joyride costs $2,000, while a basic ticket to orbit costs $150,000. Orbital accommodations range from $5,000 per day for a bunk on the early, cramped, Salyut-class hotels, to $250,000 per day for the latest and greatest accommodations, which feature large picture windows, lunar-equivalent artificial gravity in the living areas, and sizable zero-gravity recreation rooms.

So, what do you all think?

Cheers,

Nathan.

* A note on my terminology concerning launch vehicles: after the Saturn 5, I refuse to think of any payload under 100,000 lbs as "heavy lift". So, here's how I categorize launch vehicle capacities to LEO: ~0-10 lbs -- nanolift. ~10-100 lbs. -- microlift. ~100-1,000 lbs. -- ultra-lightlift. ~1,000-5,000 lbs -- lightlift. ~5,000-15,000 lbs -- medium-lightlift. ~15,000-45,000 lbs -- medium-lift. ~45,000-100,000 lbs -- medium-heavylift. ~100,000-250,000 lbs -- heavylift. ~250,000+ lbs -- ultra-heavylift.